Kelly criterion betting strategy is one of the most effective betting capital management methods in the betting industry today. But still a lot of players do not know what this method is and how effective it is. Therefore, in today’s article betting tips, the W88 experts will share with you the most specific way for you to optimize the bet, minimize the risk when playing online betting.
Overall of Kelly Formula
Kelly Formula is a math problem that was discovered and developed in 1956 by John L. Kelly to ensure optimal growth of betting funds. This formula was originally invented to assist AT&T Company to manage signal interference when using long distance phones. After that, it is widely developed into other fields and is an effective method of financial management. It was followed by progression to other areas of betting, and the beginning was horse racing.
Currently, the Kelly formula in football is used not only in football betting, but also by investors to manage and use investment capital effectively and best.
This formula requires players to have careful calculation and patience to use this formula for a long time to be effective. Over the years of development, the Kelly formula has the following form:
Stake = (Decimal Odds x % Chance Win) – 1) / (Decimal Odds – 1) x 100
Is Kelly Formula Capital Management effective
Advantages of Kelly Formula
- Manage effectively betting capital before and while participating in betting
- Calculate the reasonable bet amount based on the odds of winning and losing, and the house odds
- Minimizes the risk, helping you win more stakes
- Gives you a better overview of the match before deciding to bet on the team you love and trust
- Easily analyze statistics and come up with reasonable betting strategies
Disadvantages of Kelly Formula
- Can help players manage bets but not 100% accurate
- Players need to determine their own odds of winning for the match they wish to place bets on
How to use Kelly Criterion for betting at W88
Kelly criterion betting strategy can be used in any industry, any house, and now you can apply to play betting right at W88.
Example: The match between Watford and Man Utd, you bet on Watford to win, you now have the following information:
- Total stake: 100$
- Watford’s odds of winning: 60%
- Odds Decimal: 1.93
Now your Kelly formula is: Odds = ((((1.93 – 60%) – 1) / (1.93 – 1)) * 100 = 16.99%
Note: If these odds are negative, it is most likely because the match’s odds of winning are not high. In such a case there will be 2 cases: Bet on the opposite team; Don’t bet that match.
Variation of odds in online betting
The Kelly Index is a valuable lever for online football betting companies to adjust their risk. Generally speaking, the odds that betting companies offer will not fluctuate arbitrarily or easily, but that variation is the index of the probability of winning, losing, drawing, the index that goes up. Falling under that volatility is called the Kelly index.
Of course, the odds will not fluctuate arbitrarily. Every time it fluctuates or changes, the player must pay special attention, sometimes it is the house’s adjustment so that the bet is balanced. The bookie wants to entice you to bet the way they want and they are always the one who gets the most profit in this regard.
Other versions Kelly Formula
- Full Kelly: Full Kelly’s formula offers a pretty bold strategy whereby W88 players can bet up to 50% of their bankroll, which helps players win fast and potentially lose fast.
- Fractional Kelly: The player can only bet a certain part of the Bankroll, the bet amount can now be 50% (Half Kelly), 25% (Quarter Kelly), or any part of the bankroll that the player wishes.
- The Constant Kelly: Similar to other Full Kelly methods but instead of introducing many different percentages it recommends a percentage of a constant. For example, instead of showing 15% decline or improvement in bankroll, it recommends 15% of a constant amount.
The Kelly Criterion Strategy index of a certain betting company is just the product between the score of the online football betting company and the corresponding average probability of winning or losing in the match. Through the resolution of stats, we can understand more about stats, more knowledge to deal with the probability of each match, which means you will easily grasp the ratio. the bet the company is offering.
It can be said that the Kelly index reflects the level of risk that exists in each match, and also reflects the difference between the volatility of the market and the odds established for the match. Hopefully, with the article from W88 will help you better understand this Kelly Criterion betting strategy and apply it most effectively when participating in betting.