Expected goals betting also known as xG betting, provides a deeper insight into team performance by analyzing goal probabilities. By mastering expected goals betting, you can uncover hidden value, enhance your predictions, and make smarter wagers. Embrace xG to gain a strategic edge in your sports betting journey. Join W88 Sportsbook or 188BET experts to learn carefully what expected goals are and how to apply them to betting.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
Expected goals calculate the number of goals a team should score based on the quality of the opportunities created.
By comparing actual goals with expected goals betting, we can see whether a team has done better or worse in any given match. For example, a match with xG of 1.3 for the home team and 1.2 for the away team would suggest a 1-1 result as a fair result. The result 2-0 shows that the home team plays better and the away team plays worse.
The process of calculating the expected target from any initial opportunity created by Opta. They looked at hundreds of thousands of shots from history to then calculate the percentage chance of scoring from any given situation. Currently there are many different models that are becoming more and more advanced (taking into account the shot position, the position of the defender and goalkeeper, the height of the shot).
Shots from close range and in front of goal tend to have the highest percentage of success. The best example is penalties, which on average have a 76% success rate. That means if a team is awarded a penalty and there are no other shots, their xG will be 0.76.
Long-range shots from outside the box have a much smaller chance of converting into goals and often have an xG close to 0.01 which is 1% chance of scoring. Using the same example, a team that took one penalty vs a team that took 20 long range shots would on average win in the long run, i.e. xG of 0.76 vs 0.2 (approximately 1-0 ) This is a good example of how shots can create a misleading impression of how a match is going.
Expected Goals (xG) for predicting future matches
The main strength of Expected Goals (xG) over shots is that there is much lower variation (small standard deviation) in xG results. Teams are quite consistent in terms of xG created and conceded while shots can vary significantly from match to match. Due to its greater consistency, xG is a more useful tool in predicting future results.
The football prediction site uses expected goals betting and many other factors to predict the outcome of future matches. Predictions are then converted into a percentage chance of winning. These percentages are then converted into odds to see if the match odds are worth it.
While Expected Goals are a good predictor of results, actual goals don’t always match expected goals. Betting experts from W88 or 188BET said the Champions League final is a prime example. However, over the long term, the number of goals a team scores tends to return to Expected Goals (visit the xG Charts section of the tournament to see how xG compares to actual). If a team scores significantly more than Expected Goals, then there’s a good chance they’re overperforming.
They can therefore be a good option to bet on in future matches, especially if you’re faced with the opposite situation – a team creating a lot of good chances but failing to take them.
Limitations of Using Expected Goals in Football Betting
Another major limitation is that Expected Goals does not take into account the player taking the shot. As any football fan knows, not all players are created equal. For example, a defender who has never scored a goal and takes a shot from the edge of the box would be classified as having a 1% chance of scoring. Since this % chance is an average of all types of players, the actual odds could be much lower.
For example, if Kevin De Bruyne takes a shot it is still classed as 1% but the actual chance may be a few % higher. Again, in the long term, Goals are expected to return to actual goals but there may be fluctuations in the short term.
Conclusion
Trying to predict the future based solely on history will not yield perfect results every time. Although xG provides a good indicator of which team will come out on top, we recommend that people watch the match before betting on football. This provides key insights into whether the team you expect to win is actually playing like they should.
Related: What Is Anytime Goalscorer Betting?
